Unfortunately, they lost both starting tackles for the Super Bowl and could not stop the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beast-mode pass rush. Not every team epitomizes greatness and dominance when it is victorious in the Super Bowl. Reggie White was downright unblockable. Buffalo also addedEmmanuel Sanders to the mix, making the passing game even more formidable. Two years ago, the 49ers were 10 minutes away from winning the Super Bowl, and they return eight defensive starters from that team. The NFC West features three of FPI's top 10 teams in the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks, and the 21st-ranked Cardinals aren't necessarily an easy out, either. Here are the 10 most likely Super Bowl LV matchups: The Green Bay Packers are clearly Super Bowl contenders. 5 offense. The game wasnt nearly as close as the score indicates, though. BUT this 14-2 Atlanta Falcons team was no slouch. It was a sloppy game that was marred by questionable refereeing, but Bill Cowher and Jerome Bettis finally winning a Lombardi Trophy thanks to Willie Parkers record-setting touchdown run and Hines Ward throwing for a score made this a memorable Super Bowl. Los Angeles was a heavy underdog but actually took a lead into the fourth quarter. This isn't just about winning the closely contested division, though. Odell Beckham makes a highly anticipated return to a passing game that includes Jarvis Landry and an emerging Rashard Higgins and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Even without Wentz, the forecast for that stretch is better than one might guess; on average, the Colts win 2.2 of those games, and the chances that they start 0-5 is just over 1 in 20. The AFC is considerably tougher than the NFC. Check out the full strength of schedule rankings here. They went 7-3 in one-score games last year and led the NFL in turnover margin (+11). It did earn him a bunch of money. Had Rodgers simply decided to retire rather than suit up, Green Bay's chances to make the playoffs would have dropped from 70% to 24%, and their Super Bowl chances would have dropped from 6% to 0.2%. The Chiefs rank No. Both Cowboys-Bills Super Bowl were blowouts, but this one was at least competitive into the third quarter. In the playoffs, Indianapolis Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt had to have a meltdown of epic proportions to send the Steelers to the Conference Championship and cover up for Bettis' fumble earlier in the contest. Cole Beasley is also a reliable target for Allen, who does as much damage from the outside as well as the slot. Tennessee's offense is going to have to do most of the work in order to repeat at AFC South champions. Buffalo has a top 10 pass defense led by one of the game's best cornerbacks in Tre'Davious White and Pro Bowl snub Jordan Poyer, but the run defense has to improve to beat a team like Kansas City. They are part of the legacy of the biggest game in sports, and they had fought hard an entire winning season. Poor Bengal fans will never watch a 49ers game with a smile (unless they're losing). But we are going to look past that kick for just a minute. Im more likely to become a billionaire than the Texans are to finish above .500, much less win the Super Bowl this season. We've been projecting preseason chances to get the top draft picks only since 2018, but no team has entered the year more likely to walk away from the No. Kirk Cousins may not be elite, but he's a pretty good quarterback. Top draft picks Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham Jr. should help, but did Buffalo do enough to shore up the biggest hole on its roster? If we made Lance the starter or partial starter, it would hurt the 49ers' projection because the model assumes Lance is a little worse than Garoppolo, as of now. Here are the 10 teams most likely to win Super Bowl LV: Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay is still not that likely, however. All rights reserved. edit: grammar FPI is able to reconcile that issue to determine a more accurate SOS. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks all rank in the top half of the most difficult schedules. I'd argue their offense was a little more productive, but that being said, the 1990 team still beat them out. They had an unimpressive 115 record, but the 2002 Raiders were a well-balanced, finely tuned machine. FIFA World Cup - Best Goals from Every Angle, Draw for the FIFA Women's World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023, C.J. Keep in mind, the Larry Fitzgerald touchdown catch (pictured above) was to go ahead with 2:37 left in the game. Instead, Baltimore is here due to how poorly it played in its Super Bowl win. And no one has it rougher than the Bears in 2021. This would have been yet another classic Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowl if Neil ODonnell didnt throw the game away. Between free agency and players opting back in from 2020, New England had a massive talent infusion.. New York Jets +10000 (bet $10 to win $1010 total), The Jets have the longest playoff drought in the NFL (10 years). So its only fitting that the winner of Super Bowl 53 will have a defense that finished the regular season below the league average. This time, he didnt need a miracle catch to beat New England thanks to his sublime pass to Mario Manningham on the game-winning drive. Jalen Hurts will not pull a Slightly. Seriously, I get the Super Bowl is one of the worst in history, but this team was really great with an underappreciated defense. The defense wasn't that much better either, finishing 27th in points allowed, 30th in yards allowed, and recorded the fewest turnovers in the league. FPI believes there is an 8% chance that the Chiefs face the Bucs again, more than any other potential matchup. They were also had to win all their road playoff games, which during the time, was unheard of. 25. It also gave us the first and only Super Bowl blackout. Malcolm Butlers game-winning interception remains the best ending in Super Bowl history. Out of 35 qualified quarterbacks last season, Darnold finished 33rd in completion percentage, 30th in interception percentage, 32nd in yards per attempt, and 35th in passer rating. It remains the worst run defense in NFL history. They had a four-game losing streak, two in overtime, they were actually really good on both offense and defense. There's enough depth to get by. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens featured one of the most stifling defenses ever assembled, allowing only 970 rushing yards all season and five rushing touchdowns. Now the Colts will need to stay afloat while he recovers from foot surgery, which likely will cause him to miss the beginning of the season. 22. Finishing 133 and a high-energy offense by Sean McVay, the Rams were a force to be reckoned with. But the outputs are all the same: We're still talking football -- and about the chances of each team's success -- which now includes 17 regular-season games and an expanded playoff field. Both halves of this one were capped off by remarkable plays. If Murray can stay healthy, the sky's the limit for this team. A 15-1 team, losing to the Atlanta Falcons by a single touchdown, the 2015 Carolina Panthers were a dominant offensive force with an underrated defense. Twelve franchises have never captured a Super Bowl title. This 11-5Oakland Raiders teamfinished second in the AFC West in an era when there were only three divisions. Ranked below are the 20 worst NFL players to win a Super Bowl since 2000. Cleveland has the game's top running back tandem in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, a duo head coach Kevin Stefanski utilizes heavily in the offense. This was the year that Joe Montana and Steve Young alternated starts at quarterback until eventually Montana firmly took the reins down the stretch. 51. The game lacked memorable moments but is significant because it was Elways last. 16. The eventual champion Colts committed seven, count them, seven turnovers. Buffalo Bill's in 1992 super bowl against Dalls Cowboys have up 52 points to there offense managed 17pts (How about them cowboys.) that's pretty ba The "Greatest Show On Turf" was the potential dynasty derailed by New England Patriots. Fran Tarkenton is one of many players on this list that deserved a Super Bowl ring. Buffalo also went 6-1 in one-score games, including the playoff win over the Colts. 13. It took just seven wins for Washington to top the NFC East last season, and FPI still doesn't think much of the division a year later. The Dirty Bird Falcons werent a match for the best team John Elway played on. Buffalo Bills +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total), They went 15-2 against teams not named the Kansas City Chiefs last year, but via Warren Sharp, heres an incredible stat: The Bills had the good fortune of facing three West Coast teams last season at 1 p.m. This team is starting to scratch the surface of its potential. New York didnt want Buffalos explosive offense on the field, so it grinded out the clock on the ground and ended up winning the time of possession battle by about 20 minutes. This isn't entirely a reflection on them, though FPI is never particularly bullish on rookie quarterbacks. Jim Plunkett, a 33-year-old signal-caller at the time, was plucked off the bench early in the season and was the catalyst for the team making the playoffs, but even he only threw 18 touchdowns compared to 16 interceptions. Again, this is all dependent on how Darnold plays. At 10-4-1, this Broncos team was better balanced than the '86 team. He's a key piece in guiding Tennessee to its first championship. Team-by-team strength-of-schedule rankings. In the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh managed just 16 points and won a defensive slugfest 16-6. 6) Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Green and Rondale Moore at wide receiver. He finished fourth in the league in completion percentage (69.2), fifth in passing yards, fifth in passing touchdowns, and fourth in passer rating -- while also rushing for 421 yards and eight touchdowns. It was called the "Blunder Bowl" for a reason. A 4.47 shuttle is extremely rare. Pittsburgh sent six men to the Pro Bowl, went a decent 10-3-1 in the regular season and, of course, won the Lombardi Trophy. It all makes for a nice story, but the fact remains that the Giants were not a superb team. He had one season without Peyton and went 2-14 leading to his firing and the start of the Luck era. The Super Bowl has been around 55 years, yet more than a third of the league has never hoisted a Vince Lombardi Trophy. Yet I can see the defense making a Washington-type leap, and the offensive weapons are there for whoever wins the starting job. FPI, which launched Monday, is a forward-looking projection model that includes ratings and projections for every team, from projected win-loss records to percentages to win each division. It's all about the schedule. 1: 3: 17: 313: 305: 40.0: And it isn't particularly bullish on their prospects. Kind of pains me to say it, but it was the 2011 Giants. They shipped 400 points that year in the regular season and normally that leads to a losing A game remembered more for trick plays and bad refereeing than the actual quality of either team, the Pittsburgh Steelers emerged victorious in their effort to send Jerome Bettis off into the sunset in style. FPI then uses those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times to create projections. A great defense and front seven, but their running game hit on all cylinders with 2.305 total team rushing yards. The poor AFC South is the only reason theyre not lower. Two good-but-not-great teams playing an uncompetitive game with an unforgettable MVP? Same goes for this one. Here they are ranked: It was a lot of fun to research these teams to remember just how good they were their respective seasons. Both teams have two of the most talented rosters in the league and look to make an even deeper playoff run -- finally attempting to end title droughts that have lasted more than a half-century. Sure, it was a massive upset and Joe Namaths guarantee adds to the lore, but the game itself was a bore. But Elways scramble which ended with him being helicoptered in the air remains the most memorable visual from the game. 3) Only one of their final seven opponents has a season win total under 8.5. 31. The Philadelphia Eagles were the most recent team to leave the "never won a Super Bowl" club, but the league only has three first-time Super Bowl winners since the start of the 2009 season. Any NFL fan intuitively knows that basing strength of schedule on the previous season's record is a fool's errand because teams' abilities change too much from year to year to go off that, not to mention the fact that a single NFL season is not always a great indicator for the talent of a team. 12. 2004-2023 CBS Interactive. How much this defense will improve under first-year head coach Brandon Staley will be an indicator whether the Chargers are playoff-caliber. It truly is a remarkable tale, but the Patriots were nothing special on the way there. The aforementioned Dilfer-led passing game ranked only 23rd in the regular season (in fairness to Dilfer, he did replace Tony Banks midway through the year), and the only time the chains seemed to move was when rookie Jamal Lewis barreled forward for three or four yards. Sure the game was over by the end of the second quarter, but watching Steve Young (six touchdown passes) and Jerry Rice (three touchdown receptions) tear up the Chargers was a joy to watch. And to help you out, we ranked all 32 teams ahead of this season by the value on the odds they'll win the Super Bowl.. Brett Favre was brilliant in his only Super Bowl win. A 97 team that wasn't top 10 in anything really. They stole all-pro center Corey Linsley from the Packers and drafted Rashawn Slater in the first round.. I have multiple tickets on the Jags - win the division, wins over, win the Super Bowl. Although they have one less win, there stats still propel them ahead of the '86 team. Let us first acknowledge that four future Hall of Famers were drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1974 (Lynn Swann, Jack Lambert, John Stallworth and Mike Webster). NFL fans would have to get used that kind of ending. Dan Marino's lone Super Bowl and this team was his best shot. WebThe Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI versus the Bengals on February 13, 2022. worst team defense to win a super bowl The Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI This team is just two years removed from the AFC Championship Game and is in position to "win now." Shaun Alexander had 1,880 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns.Shaun Alexander had 1,880 rushing yards and 27 touchdowns! WebWell looking at it from a "in comparison to the rest of the league that year" perspective, as far as defenses that allowed the most points, these rank as the 3 worst defenses to win a Super Bowl: 2011 Giants were the 25th ranked defense 2006 Colts were the 23rd ranked defense 2009 Saints were the 20th ranked defense In fact, he is widely regarded as one of the worst starting quarterbacks to ever win a Super Bowl. 20. Its the only Super Bowl where a member of the losing team won MVP. Disputed loan at center of Commanders probe, Team-by-team strength-of-schedule rankings, Projecting the NFL's best and worst pass-protecting offensive lines: 1-32 ranking, Ranking all 32 NFL teams based on how much better (or worse) they got this offseason, NFL Future Power Rankings: Projections for all 32 teams for the next three seasons, Watson sexually assaulted them or engaged in sexually inappropriate behavior, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. If not for the dramatic ending, this game may have finished last on this list. Los Angeles is going to score points this year. Seattle came in with the leagues best defense. The Bucs, despite not being quite on Kansas City's level, remain the favorite in the NFC and are the only other team to cross double digits in terms of chances to win the Super Bowl. This was the first of the Cowboys three Super Bowl wins in the 90s. Allen set the Bills' franchise record for passing yards in a season (4,544) and passing touchdowns (37), finishing with a 107.2 passer rating. What will the Buffalo Bills do without defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier? A 14-win team with a top 10 offense and defense. Not to mention, Reggie White wrecking people on defense. Joe Montanas first Super Bowl win was nearly squandered after the 49ers let the Bengals nearly erase a 20-point deficit. The Chargers got the last of the three talented quarterbacks from the 2020 draft class, and possibly the best in Justin Herbert -- the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Although the Rams are FPI's top team of the bunch, San Francisco is actually the favorite here. It helps that the Browns arguably have a top three offensive line in football (if not the best). Plenty of fans were made because the 1998 Minnesota Vikings are the best team of all time to never make a Super Bowl. Baltimore is well balanced, with a projected offense and defense (and special teams!) Unfortunately, they had to go head-to-head with arguably the greatest defense of all-time in the '85 Bears. New York's passing attack was somewhere between awful and mediocre. Green Bay Packers +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total), The Packers are tied for the second-best odds to win the NFC, but their arduous schedule includes a league-high 10 games against teams that made the playoffs last year. That doesn't even sound like a real record, let alone a division winner. There are quite a few contenders to win their first Super Bowl in 2021, and the two favorites reside in the loaded AFC. The Dolphins won their second consecutive Super Bowl in a game that was over well before the fourth quarter. A great passing defense helped elevate this Vikings team to a 122 record. The NFC West is loaded, but the Cardinals have the talent to win the division. The Lions are in the first year of a rebuild, as Dan Campbell looks to change the culture of a franchise that has just one playoff win over the last 63 years. Cincinnatis late onside kick attempt failed and deprived us of what could have been a classic ending. What puts Baltimore on this list is the lack of offensive prowess. Id have to guess the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. FPI considers Houston more than a touchdown worse than an average NFL team on a neutral field and believes the Texans simultaneously have the worst offense ", Remember, this is about *value* in Super Bowl odds. Will this be the first time for everything?. Michael Strahan and Keith Hamilton combined for 19.5 sacks, and the team had 44 total. Eli Manning did it to the Patriots again. The Buffalo Bills are coming off their first conference championship game appearance since 1993 while the Cleveland Browns won their first playoff game since 1995. WebJim Caldwell is may be the worst coach to ever make it to the Super Bowl, but he didn't win. The Falcons still have Matt Ryan at quarterback, who has thrown for the most passing yards in the league over the last three years and has a emerging star in Calvin Ridley and a game-changing tight end in rookie first-rounderKyle Pitts. This is the first game on this list that was actually competitive going into the fourth quarter, but it was a sloppy affair featuring seven fumbles and a pair of interceptions. Self care and ideas to help you live a healthier, happier life. Top 5 in both points for and against, the Vikings 10-win record kept them from being higher on this list. Well, they blew their lead in the big game, but they also weren't a great defensive team. More NFL coverage . Detroit has some work to do on the defensive side of the ball, a monumental task for new defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn (gave up a league-worst 112.4 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks in 2020).